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Let me just start by saying “Capital markets are like telescopes, they are designed to observe what exists, not to fully comprehend what is just beginning to form beyond the visible horizon.” Every so often, however, something enters their field of view that forces a recalibration of focus. A potential SpaceX IPO is one such moment not because it reflects the present clearly, but because it reveals how inadequately we measure the future. Maybe this is not just an IPO. Maybe it is a repricing of the future.

Every once in a while, public markets are forced to confront something they are not structurally designed to price. The IPO of Netscape did that for the internet. Amazon did it for digital commerce. Tesla did it for the electrification narrative. A potential SpaceX IPO may do something even more profound: it could force markets to move beyond valuing companies as businesses and begin valuing them as infrastructure layers of the future economy.

According to me, that distinction is not semantic, it is foundational. Because if you approach SpaceX as a traditional IPO, you will almost certainly misprice it. And if you approach it as a conventional growth story, you may entirely miss what the market is actually reacting to.

The Scale of Expectation: Markets Are Already Pricing the Future

Recent reports suggest that SpaceX could target a valuation in the range of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, with a potential raise of up to $75 billion, positioning it as the largest IPO in history. To contextualize that: such a valuation would place SpaceX among the most valuable companies globally, despite operating in industries that, individually, have historically commanded far lower multiples. More importantly, this valuation is not anchored in current financials alone. Estimates indicate revenues in the range of $15–16 billion with approximately $8 billion in EBITDA, implying valuation multiples that would appear excessive under traditional frameworks. 

And yet, investor appetite remains strong. This is the first signal worth paying attention to. Markets are not pricing SpaceX based on what it is today. They are pricing it based on what it could structurally become.

What Investors Are Actually Buying: A Multi-Layered Infrastructure Stack 

The most common mistake in analyzing SpaceX is categorizing it as an aerospace company. Well, in my opinion it is an infrastructure stack operating across three interconnected layers:

• Access Layer: Launch economics, enabling cheaper and more frequent access to orbit 
• Connectivity Layer: Satellite-based global internet through Starlink 
• Future Layer: Data, AI, and potentially energy infrastructure in space 

The second layer i.e., Starlink is already doing the heavy lifting in valuation justification.

With over 10 million subscribers globally, Starlink has moved from experimental to economically meaningful scale, contributing a dominant share of revenue. 

This is where the IPO narrative becomes more interesting. Because Starlink is not just a product. It is a platform that bypasses terrestrial telecom monopolies. And platforms, as we know, are not valued on margins alone ; they are valued on as I ‘d say….control over ecosystems.

The Valuation Paradox: Why Traditional Models Break Down

From an investment banking standpoint, SpaceX presents a valuation paradox.

On one hand, its financial metrics, high growth, strong margins, and expanding revenue streams support a premium. On the other, the implied multiples stretch beyond even the most aggressive growth benchmarks. However, this is precisely where traditional models fail.

SpaceX is not competing within a defined industry. It is actively redefining the boundaries of multiple industries simultaneously.

• It is lowering the cost of launching satellites, which impacts the entire space economy
• It is creating a parallel internet infrastructure independent of terrestrial grids
• It is positioning itself within future narratives of space-based computing and data infrastructure 

This creates what can only be described as asymmetric optionality.

Investors are not just buying current earnings. They are buying the possibility that SpaceX becomes the backbone of multiple future markets that do not yet fully exist. And that is notoriously difficult to price.

The Real Story (well, seems like) : From Products to Infrastructure Dominance

There is a deeper pattern here that CEOs and investors should not ignore. The most valuable companies of the last two decades did not win by building better products. They won by controlling infrastructure layers.

Amazon built logistics and cloud infrastructure. Google built information infrastructure. Microsoft built enterprise software infrastructure.

SpaceX is attempting something more ambitious: building infrastructure beyond Earth. That may sound exaggerated. It is not. Because the combination of launch capabilities and orbital networks effectively creates a new economic domain – one where data, communication, and potentially energy are no longer constrained by geography.

This is why comparisons to aerospace companies are insufficient. The more relevant comparison is to cloud computing in its early stages before the market fully understood its implications.

The Risk That Markets Are Underestimating

For all the excitement, there is a layer of risk that deserves sharper scrutiny. First, execution risk remains significant. Scaling space infrastructure is not analogous to scaling software platforms. Failures are costlier, timelines are longer, and dependencies are more complex.

Second, regulatory uncertainty is still evolving. Orbital congestion, spectrum allocation, and geopolitical tensions could introduce constraints that are difficult to model today.

Third and perhaps most critical there is narrative risk.

The valuation of SpaceX is heavily dependent on belief in future capabilities, many of which are not yet proven at scale. The market is effectively underwriting a vision that includes:

• Space-based data centres 
• AI integration with orbital infrastructure 
• Expansion into direct-to-device communication 

These are powerful narratives. But they are still narratives. And markets have historically shown that they are willing to reward vision, until they suddenly are not.

The Governance Shift: From Founder Conviction to Market Discipline

Another dimension that deserves attention is governance. SpaceX has operated with extraordinary strategic freedom as a private entity. Its ability to take long-term bets without quarterly scrutiny has been a competitive advantage.

An IPO changes that dynamic. Public markets introduce Short-term performance expectations, Increased transparency requirements, Pressure for capital efficiency 

The central question is whether a company built on long-horizon thinking can sustain its strategic boldness under public market discipline. For CEOs, this is not just about SpaceX. It is a broader reflection on how transformative companies evolve when they transition from private conviction to public accountability.

What This IPO Signals to Global Capital Markets

If SpaceX proceeds with its IPO at the projected scale, the implications seems to be extending far beyond a single listing. It will:

• Institutionalize the space economy as a legitimate asset class 
• Accelerate capital inflows into adjacent sectors, including satellite technology, defense, and orbital infrastructure 
• Force a re-evaluation of valuation frameworks for companies operating at the intersection of multiple industries 

Some analysts have already described this moment as a ‘Netscape-like event’ for the space economy -where a previously niche domain transitions into mainstream capital markets relevance. This comparison is not accidental. Because just as the internet required a public market moment to unlock institutional capital, the space economy may require a similar catalyst.

So as to close this piece, let me share a reflection

The temptation with any high-profile IPO is to focus on timing, pricing, and short-term performance. The deeper question is strategic: Are we evaluating SpaceX as a company or as a structural shift in how infrastructure itself is defined? Because if it is the latter, then this IPO is not simply about liquidity. It is about redefining what constitutes an investable asset in the 21st century. The implication is quite lucid- Competitive advantage will increasingly be shaped by access to infrastructure layers that extend beyond traditional boundaries. For investment bankers, the implication is even sharper. The frameworks used to price value today may not be sufficient to price the companies that define tomorrow.

The Question That Will Define This IPO

As markets prepare for what could be the largest IPO in history, one question will quietly determine how it is ultimately remembered: Is SpaceX being valued for what it earns today, or for the infrastructure it could control tomorrow?

Because if markets are right, this IPO will not just create wealth. It will redefine how wealth itself is created.

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LEADING A BUSINESS THROUGH IPO, EXIT AND BEYOND

• Deciding whether to float or not?
• Short, medium, long term – the pros/cons of different scenarios
• How to enhance shareholder / stock value
• What are the pitfalls which can result in a flotation and how to avoid them
• What are the Corporate Governance, risk mitigation and due diligence requirements?
• How do you go about assembling an effective Board of Execs and NEDs?
• What are the key skills of a successful Non-Executive Chairman?
• Examples of leading ailing businesses through turnaround and learnings gained.

DECIDING WHETHER TO FLOAT OR NOT?

Need to be certain you want to move into a public spotlight that comes with being listed

Significant greater rules and regulations as a public company

Undergo internal audit to ascertain whether the business is in a position to do so. A full business review

Assessing in advance issues including:

• Corporate structure
• Board structure
• Board and senior management abilities
• Corporate Governance analyses
• Issues which would prevent Listing
• Internal control reviews
• Tax check ups and requirements

UNDERSTANDING THE REQUIREMENTS OF INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS

• Solid management team
• Proven concept
• Sizeable market opportunity
• Differentiated proposition
• Rationale for joining the AIM
  • Growth Capital
  • Raise profile
  • Incentive / retain staff through tradable equity

The items above should form an executive summary to the superior strategies for business plan and strategy document, together with a financial summary, to use as a preliminary document to start to assist the Company.

IPO PROCESS – PHASE 1 – STRATEGIC ISSUES

Strategic issues:

• Business Plan and Strategy
• Rationale for an IPO
• Capital Structure and Debt Financing
• Intentions of major shareholders post listing
• Issue size and structure
• Timing
• Advisors
  • Nomad
  • Legal
  • Accountants
  • PR
  • Registrars

Indicative AIM flotation timetable

The Advisors

IPO PROCESS – PHASE 2 – PLANNING

Planning:

• Corporate Structure and domicile
• Financial Track record
• Dividend policy
• Board Structure and Corporate Governance
• Incentivisation Schemes
• Employee Participation
• Project Timetable

DUE DILIGENCE

• Financial Modelling
• Long Form report
• Commercial due diligence
• Legal due diligence
• Prospectus Drafting
• Shareholder Agreement
• Underwriting Agreement
• Lock up undertakings
• Roadshow presentation

We will guide you in the selection of the relevant professionals who can provide relevant services around the above activities

COMMERCIAL AND FINANCIAL DUE DILIGENCE

• Detailed operational, commercial and strategic plan for the business
• Business development opportunities
• Detailed budgets and forecasts

At this preliminary stage this only needs to be provided at a high level and in summary form

LONG FORM REPORT

• Nature and scope of business
• Adequacy of accounting systems and internal controls
• Past record of forecasting of results and working capital requirements
• Appropriateness of accounting policies

SHORT FORM REPORT

• Financial Statements and Cash flow for 3 years
• Accountants to confirm that accounts are fair and reasonable

WORKING CAPITAL REPORT

• Statement is required in prospectus / admission document that company has sufficient working capital for the next 12/15 months
• Detailed review of monthly working capital requirements and compliance with relevant covenants together with sensitivity analysis

Not required at this preliminary stage

SHORT, MEDIUM, LONG TERM THE PROS/CONS OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS Of AN IPO

Short Term (PROS) 18 Months

• Providing access to Capital for growth – Raise finance for further developments as Company grows
• Placing an objective market value on the Company’s business
• Increasing the Company’s ability to make acquisitions (Available Currency)
• Create a market for Company’s shares and broadening the shareholder base
• Encourage Employee commitment and incentivising their long term motivation e.g. share options
• Creating heightened public profile
• Always under promise and over deliver

Short Term (CONS)

• Dealing with increased disclosure and greater Regulatory obligations
• Additional costs associated with new audit fees, investor relations, NEDs, etc.

Medium Term 3-5 years

• Stable Management team pulling in the same direction
• Stay focused on Plan
• Maintain momentum – with shareholders following IPO
• Be transparent – To obtain the long term support of all shareholders
• Consistently meet the delivery or growth plan
• Do not become obsessed with share price

Change Board / Chair at what point and why?

Long Term 5 year +

Investors looking for:

• A committed and experienced management team
• Commitment to strong corporate governance procedures
• A viable Corporate Culture
• Sustainable Competitive position
• Growing business operating in an expanding market, locally and / or internationally
• Visibility and quality of earnings
• In summary: Quality, Good Governance and Value

HOW TO ENHANCE SHAREHOLDER / STOCK VALUE

• Once transformation into a Public Company is complete, it is just the beginning, and company then needs to meet the ongoing obligations of public markets
• Management needs to execute strategic initiatives and transactions
• Invest in good people and continue to evaluate the performance of the Board and management team
• Under promise and over deliver – Turnover, Profits, etc.
• Engage with investors effectively through a clear communication plan
• Manage Risk and Promoting good Corporate Governance , will add value
• Do not over-value the business. This is less important at IPO time.

WHAT ARE THE PITFALLS WHICH CAN RESULT IN A FAILED FLOTATION AND HOW TO AVOID THEM

• Management – Comply with rules, culture, etc
• Need to be sensible when valuing Company
• Investors will not invest in Companies where the Revenues or Assets are not substantiated
• Need a clear vision with credible management team committed for the long term
• Cannot raise all the funds needed
• Down turn in economy and stock market
• Fraudulent information
• Intellectual Property Rights – issues relating there too

FINANCIAL DUE DILIGENCE

The Business Plan prepared by the Company

• Detailed operational and strategic plan for the business
• Business development
• Detailed Budgets and forecasts

Long form report prepared – by the reporting accountants who records the results of the financial due diligence

• Nature and scope of business trends
• Adequacy of accounting systems
• Forecasting, working capital, accounting policies

Short Form Report

• 3 year Financial statements (Audited)

Working Capital Report – 18 Months

Legal including verification of, Material contracts, Underwriting Agreements

WHAT ARE THE CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, RISK MITIGATION?

RISK MITIGATIONS (who is responsible for reviewing Risk mitigation issues)

• Auditors
• Reporting Accountants
• Lawyers
• NOMAD (Nominated Advisors)

All above would assist in ensuring that the information is correct and ensure due care with risk mitigation

The end result being the admission document which is the responsibility of the NOMAD to the Stock Exchange, ensuring everything is correct and verified.

STRUCTURE AND REQUIREMENTS OF AN EFFECTIVE BOARD

Well functioning Board is led by the Chairman

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE FOR GROWING COMPANIES

WHAT ARE THE OBJECTIVES OF CORPORATE GOVERNANCE?

Corporate Governance is the system of processes, activities, standards and reporting to facilitate and deliver growth in long term shareholder value by reducing risk while maintaining a flexible, efficient and effective management framework within an entrepreneurial environment.

It represents a dynamic relationship between shareholders, the Company and the Directors, influenced by a number of external factors including regulation and social responsibility.

It reduces the risk of uncommercial and inappropriate bad decisions being made.

SUPERIOR STRATEGIES FOR BUSINESS GROWTH: QCA Code

THE PRINCIPLES OF THE QCA CODE

• Establish a strategy and business model which promotes long term value for shareholders
• Seek to understand and meet shareholder needs and expectations
• Take into account why the stakeholder and social responsibilities and their implications for long term success
• Embed effective risk management, considering both opportunities and threats throughout the organisation
• Maintain the board as a well functioning, balanced team led by the chair
• Ensure that between them, the directors have the necessary up-to-date experience, skills and capabilities
• Evaluate board performance based on clear and relevant objectives, seeking continuous improvement
• Promote a corporate cultures that is based on ethical values and behaviours
• Maintain governance structures and processes that are fit for purpose and support good decision making by the board
• Communicate how the company is governed and is performing by maintaining a dialog with shareholders and other relevant stakeholders

Managing the cultural gap with Chinese companies who want to do an IPO in London

I have been working with Chinese Companies for over 5 years and have been Associated with 3 Chinese companies as Chairman or NED that have listed in London (AIM).

With the globalisation of world business, China has become an appealing market for foreign investors. The problem of cross-cultural management arises as the cooperation between China and its culturally different Western partners continues to increase at an unprecedented rate.

The biggest barrier in doing business in the world market is managing cultural differences.  It ranks first in areas such as “law, price competition, information, language, delivery, foreign currency, time differences.  The spread of businesses onto the global stage brings the issue of national and regional differences to the fore – particularly in business –thus creating a number of management issues.

It is a big culture shock for Chinese business men and companies, who are considering coming to the UK to do business, perhaps to do an IPO, to later discover that they did not meet the transparency, legal, corporate governance and on-going obligations required to achieve becoming a listed company.

It can also be observed that most of the failures faced by cross-national companies are caused by neglect of cultural differences. The globalisation of the world economy, on one hand, has created tremendous opportunities for global collaboration among different countries; on the other hand, however, it has also created a unique set of problems and issues relating to the effective management of partnerships with different cultures.

Understanding the IPO process

Chinese business men in general do not fully understand the way business is done in the West including the IPO process.  Equally, the reverse applies; the people here also do not fully understand the Chinese culture or the way they do business. Here lies a dilemma.  Part of this cultural imbalance makes it important that Chinese companies have directors on their boards who speak English and know how business is conducted in the West.  These companies need to understand that they and their Directors will undergo examination and due diligence processes before an IPO can take place.  This due diligence process would include:

• Financial Position
• Business Plan and working capital requirements
• Legal Position
• Organisation Structure
• Directors in terms of suitability to be a Director of a listed company

The above would be examined and investigated by the Brokers / Nomads, Lawyers and Reporting Accountants.

China and the UK differ greatly with regard to their economic systems, political systems, social values, and laws, despite the substantial changes that have occurred in China during recent years.

It has been widely accepted that cultural differences greatly affect human thinking and behaviour and thus business organisations in which people interact on the basis of shared values. Management is embedded in a wider societal setting, and is heavily influenced by local historical and cultural norms. The significant differences between the UK and China seem to affect some aspects of their management practice.

Chinese Companies need to understand that a competent board of directors need to be set up with Executive and Independent Non-Executive Directors.  The concept of Non -Executive directors is not completely understood or appreciated and how they can add value to the progress and credibility of the company, including communicating with institutional investors.  By having experienced UK based English speaking Non-Executive Directors on their board with experience of working with Chinese companies, would greatly assist the Chinese directors with the IPO process and also assist post listing with regard to dealing with advisors, communication, listing rules and good Corporate Governance.

My personal experience is that generally one has to earn the respect and trust of Chinese colleagues on the board, and when there is mutual respect they will take the advice on running a listed company in the UK and comply with the rules, of Corporate Governance including risk management.

In the process of cooperation, we in the UK place greater importance on contractual safeguards than the Chinese. This is based on the belief that contracts can ensure that their partners’ tendencies to focus on individual goals and aspirations do not interfere with their own individual goals and aspirations. But the Chinese don’t consider contracts as seriously as we do. They think there will always be changes and the contracts can be reasonably modified according to changes. Instead, they tend to pay more attention to relationships than contracts.

To deal with a difficult or controversial request in the IPO process, indirect forms of influence are preferred by Chinese managers to avoid losing face and damaging guanxi.  When their Western partners propose to use direct and open ways to deal with the issues, they may feel embarrassed. On the other hand, Western partners may get totally confused by the roundabout way the Chinese use to solve seemingly simple problems.

In conclusion, it is very important for Chinese or other companies wishing to do an IPO to appreciate that the IPO is only the beginning and not the end of the process, in terms of success and capital growth for shareholders

About the Author: Frank Lewis has over 25 years of experience in both listed and private companies. He has held a number of board positions as Chairman, Non Executive Director, CEO and Finance Director, both in the UK and abroad with growing mid-market companies.

With a background in sophisticated and developing markets, he has the commercial prospective required to assist with growth strategies, acquisitions and flotations. View Frank’s short bio